US Dollar Index

On Monday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained below the 102 level, bolstered primarily by a weakening euro. The euro faced pressure from intense protests in France and other European nations, as well as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Investors are also closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, where there are few signs of de-escalation in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, alongside ongoing attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US dollar softened on Friday after Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh—while offering no specific signals regarding the outcome of this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting—noted that higher-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy. The Federal Reserve has since entered a "blackout period" ahead of its October 27–28 policy meeting; the market currently assigns an approximately 84% probability to interest rates remaining unchanged.

Last week, the US Dollar Index experienced an initial rally followed by a pullback—a classic week of volatility driven by inflation data, which spurred an upward move, followed by profit-taking after remarks from Federal Reserve officials. On Friday, the index dipped below the 101.75 level—a floor it had held consistently from October 5 until its surge earlier in the week—though it has since returned to that range. The index is on track to record its first weekly decline since early September, with the 25-day simple moving average (SMA) situated near 101.45. The rebound following the second low has pushed intraday momentum into overbought territory. While the US dollar may have surrendered some of its gains last week, there is little evidence to suggest that its rally has run its course. Inflation remains stubbornly high, the Federal Reserve continues to lean toward further policy tightening, and rising energy prices offer no relief. From a technical perspective, a move back above 102.17 (the 9-day moving average) would bring resistance levels at 102.94 (last week’s low) and the 103.00 psychological mark into focus. A breakout above these levels could pave the way for a further push toward 104.00 in the coming weeks. However, if the rebound continues to face resistance, one cannot rule out a pullback toward the 125-day simple moving average (SMA) at 101.45, or even the 101.00 level.

Consider going short on the US Dollar Index at 102.10 today; stop-loss: 102.20; targets: 101.70, 101.60.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair extended its gains for the second consecutive trading session, trading near 0.6970 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair remained strong as the Australian dollar held its ground following the release of key economic data from China—Australia’s primary trading partner. China’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 4.5% year-on-year. This marks an acceleration from the 4.3% growth recorded in the second quarter and exceeds the market consensus forecast of 4.4%. Meanwhile, the US dollar has come under pressure as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October have waned, further boosting the AUD/USD pair. Market sentiment shifted on Friday after Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh, speaking at an International Monetary Fund (IMF) event, stated that he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions; he offered no clear signal as to whether the central bank would raise rates or keep short-term rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting on October 27–28.

On the daily chart, the short-term outlook for AUD/USD remains bearish, as the spot price continues to trade below the 100-day SMA (0.7037) and the 0.7000 psychological level, the latter of which now acts as immediate resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 44, suggesting that downward pressure persists, though it has not yet reached the "capitulation" phase typically seen in oversold conditions. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 0.7000 psychological level and the 100-day SMA at 0.7037, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at 0.7067, which is likely to cap any stronger rebound attempts. On the downside, the next major support level lies at 0.6924, the 270-day simple moving average (SMA). Should the decline persist, sellers may hesitate as the price approaches the 0.6900 mark and the 0.6894 level (a four-month low).

For today, one might consider going long on the AUD at 0.6965, with a stop-loss at 0.6955 and targets at 0.7010 and 0.7020.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair rose to around 1.3326 last week, posting a cumulative gain of 0.63%—one of the strongest performances among major currencies. Looking back, the pound had previously retreated from a high of 1.3675, dipping toward 1.3137 in October, before staging a rapid recovery to climb back above 1.33. The pound’s strength was not driven by major domestic data; rather, it benefited from broader US dollar weakness and a reallocation of capital across asset classes. Major international institutions have noted that as the US dollar’s ​​correlation with "AI-related trades" has increased, currencies that were previously under pressure—such as the pound—have seen renewed buying interest. Meanwhile, market expectations regarding the Bank of England’s policy path have remained stable, with no new shocks related to interest rates. A technical rebound from an oversold condition, combined with a weaker US dollar, fueled the pound’s weekly gains. Furthermore, data showing that the UK economy grew more than expected in August has bolstered speculation that the Bank of England could raise interest rates as early as next month.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has staged a strong rebound from its mid-week lows, forming a bullish "outside bar" on the weekly chart. This opens the door for a retest of the 1.3650–1.3675 range, with key resistance located at 1.3390 (the 100-day simple moving average). On the daily chart, GBP/USD remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized slightly above the neutral 50 level, the pair remains constrained. The price continues to hold above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, reflecting a corrective bearish bias; downside risks remain dominant until the pair can reclaim the dense resistance levels overhead. On the upside, initial resistance is found in the 1.3390 (100-day SMA) to 1.3400 (round number) area, followed by the September 16 high of 1.3498, where stronger selling interest may emerge. On the downside, the 1.3300 level provides immediate support, with further support near the 10-day SMA at 1.3254. A break below this could open the door for a more pronounced bearish extension toward the 1.3200 level.

Consider going long on GBP/USD at 1.3300 today; stop-loss: 1.3290, targets: 1.3350 and 1.3360.

USD/JPY

During Monday’s session, USD/JPY remained on the defensive near 158.50, as the US dollar hovered near a two-week low amid a recent decline in US Treasury yields. Furthermore, the looming risk of intervention has provided support for the Japanese yen, while hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have weighed on the pair. Nevertheless, bets regarding Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty may limit the dollar's decline and the downside potential for this major pair. The yen has strengthened, pushing USD/JPY below the 158.00 mark and away from a six-week low. This follows a warning from the Ministry of Finance that authorities are prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market again, should the need arise. She further emphasized that the stance of Washington and Tokyo remains unchanged following their joint intervention in July to support the Japanese yen. The yen had weakened on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected. Regarding monetary policy, Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Junko Koeda cautioned against being overly cautious about raising interest rates, hinting that the central bank may continue with its planned rate hikes in the coming months. Previous reports suggested that the BOJ is reluctant to implement consecutive rate hikes—a rare move—this month, though a hike in December remains under consideration.

On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is hovering near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 157.98, remaining within a range-bound pattern. A breakout above the upper boundary of this range—near 158.83 (the upper Bollinger Band)—would support further gains toward 159.04 (the high from September 24). Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 52.78, slightly above the midline, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish momentum bias. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally in negative territory, indicating that while momentum is improving, it has yet to turn positive. Support lies at the lower boundary of the range, around 157.55. A decisive break below this level would weaken the current bullish tone, potentially opening the door for a deeper pullback toward the 157.00 mark, with a subsequent test of support at 156.50 (the low from September 28).

For today, one might consider shorting the USD/JPY pair at 158.65, with a stop-loss at 158.80 and targets at 158.00 and 157.90.

EUR/USD

During early Asian trading on Monday, the EUR/USD pair faced some selling pressure near the 1.1210 level. The euro has weakened against the US dollar amid rising fiscal risks in France, following a jump in the French debt risk premium in early October. In the previous trading session, the yield spread between 10-year French and German government bonds surged beyond 150 basis points, signaling heightened investor concern. This key indicator of financial market risk has reached its highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis of 2011. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, speaking at the IMF-World Bank summit in Bangkok, stated that France must address its structural issues through domestic fiscal policy. Meanwhile, Spain is set to hold a snap general election on November 29, further exacerbating political instability across the Eurozone. Across the Atlantic, Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh offered no clues on future interest rate decisions this Friday, noting that he would not "prejudge the meeting." The market currently assigns an 83.9% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged later this month—up from 49% a month ago.

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish bias in the near term, as the spot price remains capped below both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1314 and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 1.1274. The price is currently closer to the lower Bollinger Band support at 1.1102 than to the resistance levels above. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39.04—slightly below the neutral mark—suggesting that recent selling pressure is easing but has not yet reversed. On the upside, initial resistance is found at the Bollinger Band middle line (1.1274), followed by the 100-day SMA (1.1314) and the 50-day SMA (1.1462); together, these levels form a dense zone of supply that constrains any attempted rebound. On the downside, the 10-day simple moving average at 1.1205 and the 1.1200 (round-number) level serve as the next key support zone. A decisive break below this floor could extend the bearish phase toward the 1.1100 psychological and historical level.
For today, one might consider going long on the Euro at 1.1200, with a stop-loss at 1.1190 and targets at 1.1240 and 1.1250.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

On Monday, crude oil prices dipped below the $98.00-per-barrel mark, though they retained most of last week’s 10% gain. Supply risks remain elevated due to escalating hostilities in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels shows no clear signs of easing; a Saudi helicopter crashed near the Yemeni border, while the Houthis targeted Yanbu—a critical oil export hub. Over the weekend, three additional oil tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy asserting that the waterway remains effectively closed, requiring their authorization for passage. In Europe, a Ukrainian attack on Sunday ignited an oil export terminal and a storage depot near St. Petersburg; Kyiv launched over a thousand drones into Russia, marking one of the largest aerial assaults of the war. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he has reached an agreement with Russia regarding diesel exports and has deferred additional sanctions to avoid jeopardizing peace negotiations concerning Ukraine.

In the short term, WTI crude oil is caught in a tug-of-war between expectations of supply recovery—driven by the easing of sanctions against Russia—and the geopolitical risk premiums stemming from both the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil has pulled back following a seven-day winning streak, entering a phase of consolidation at a high level. The price is currently trading within the middle range of the large bullish candle formed last Friday. Resistance levels lie at $99.0/bbl, $101.4/bbl, and $102/bbl, while support levels are found at $97.0/bbl, $95.5/bbl, and $93.0/bbl. On the daily chart, the RSI has retreated from a high level but remains in a strong zone; the MACD’s red bars continue to expand, though the slope has flattened—indicating that bullish momentum has weakened but has not yet dissipated. A decisive break below $97.0/bbl could undermine the short-term bullish structure, potentially pushing the price down toward the $95.5–$93.0/bbl range. Conversely, if the price manages to stabilize back above $99.0/bbl, it may once again challenge the $101–$102/bbl resistance zone.

For today, one might consider going long on crude oil at $97.90, with a stop-loss at $97.75 and targets at $100.00 and $101.00.

Spot Gold

On Monday, gold climbed above $4,145 per ounce, extending its recent gains. Dovish remarks from Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh led traders to lower their expectations for an interest rate hike in October. Speaking at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Warsh did not signal the outcome of this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but noted that higher-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve has since entered a "quiet period" ahead of its October 27–28 policy meeting; the market currently assigns an approximately 84% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged. Growing concerns regarding investments linked to artificial intelligence have triggered a sell-off in equity markets and pushed bond yields lower, with gold also benefiting from increased safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have kept oil prices elevated, while violent protests in France and other European nations have further compounded overall market uncertainty.

The range-bound movement in gold prices can be characterized as a bearish consolidation phase, following a pullback from the $4,700 level reached in August. Furthermore, gold remains well below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,239, suggesting that recent gains are part of a broader corrective phase rather than an established uptrend. At the same time, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46.46—slightly favoring the bullish side—while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the zero line, indicating a positive but weakening momentum. To alleviate current downward pressure and pave the way for a more constructive medium-term outlook, gold would need to reclaim the $4,200 mark and break through the resistance of the current trading range, located in the $4,215–$4,220 zone. On the downside, the $4,150–$4,145 area offers immediate support, followed by the $4,100 psychological level and last week’s low in the $4,075–$4,065 range. A decisive break below the latter would expose gold to the risk of testing its year-to-date low near $3,957, a level last seen in July.

For today, one might consider going long on gold at $4,135, with a stop-loss at $4,130 and targets at $4,180 and $4,170.